Your relevant Budget summary. The short version or the long version – your choice.

I’m prepared to accept that there may be some people out there that find the Federal Budget a little boring. Hey, stop yawning – I haven’t even started!

For anyone who just wants an absolute bare bones budget breakdown, I’ve prepared a summary of the main points below. At the very least you can pretend to care if one of your friends or family members raises the matter.

And for anyone who would like a more comprehensive look at what this year’s Federal Budget involved, I’ve catered for your tastes too.

First, the breakdown.

Wayne Swan’s 6th and possibly last budget (his Swan Song??) was not as tough as expected. He’s anticipating savings of $44 billion over four years, with the budget expected to be back in surplus in three years time.

From an investor perspective, there were not many new announcements, as most of the changes to superannuation were announced a few weeks ago.

A summary of some of the changes that may impact investors are:

• The personal income tax cuts scheduled to commence on 1 July 2015, will be deferred. These tax cuts had already been legislated so this will actually require an amendment to the legislation. The changes were to be funded by the carbon pricing, which has been lower than anticipated and therefore will be deferred until the carbon price hits $25.40.
  
  
• The Medicare levy will be increased by half a percentage point from 1.5% to 2% from 1 July 2014 to provide funding for DisabilityCare Australia. This has already been introduced into Parliament and will most likely be passed before the election.
  
  
• The proposed increase to the Medicare levy will take the top marginal tax rate to 47% (previously 46.5%), which means a number of other tax rates based on this combination will also be increased to 47% from 1 July 2014. These include increasing Fringe Benefits Tax and the tax rate on excess non-concessional contributions.
  
  
• The Medicare levy low-income threshold for families will increase to $33,693 for the 2012-13 year, with effect from 1 July 2013.
  
  
• The net medical expenses tax offset (NMETO) will phase out from 1 July 2013, with a two year “phase-out” arrangement for those currently entitled to the offset.
  
  
• Swan announced a pilot program for age pension recipients when downsizing their home. Rather than having “leftover” sale proceeds means tested, they will be able to deposit up to $200,000 in a special bank account and it will be exempt from testing for 10 years (including the earnings). Importantly, the funds are only exempt if you do not make a withdrawal. This will be trialled over a 3 year period.
  
  
• There have been a number of changes which may impact families including removing the Baby Bonus in July 2014, changes to Family Tax Benefit A which is now only paid until the calendar year when the child finishes school, and “pauses” on indexation for certain family based payments (Paid Parential Leave,  Family Tax Benefit A & B) and child care rebate.
  
  
• The annual amount claimed as a tax deduction for self-education expenses will be limited to $2,000 per person. This doesn’t apply to employer funded expenses where there are currently no limitations (this doesn’t include salary sacrifice).
  
  
• Something that wasn’t mentioned in the budget was further discounting of the minimum pension from July 2013. We can probably assume by the omission that the discounted rate hasn’t been extended and will most likely refer to standard rates on 1 July 2013.

If you’d like to hear more of what I have to say on the matter, click here for a recording of my most recent “You & Your Money” radio segment on 98.1FM Radio Eastern and click here for your more detailed Budget report.

If you’d like a youtube update that runs for less than 4 minutes, just go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB2fpMSsZ3U

Talk soon,

Caren

Some perspective around the “fiscal cliff”

Dad and I often laugh about some of the “extreme” terms that are coined by the media. One of our favourites is “fiscal cliff”, I mean blimey, how scary does that sound?! For me that term conjures up an image of Barrack Obama hanging one-handed from the edge of a cliff with Republican Treasurer, Tony Parker, prying at his fingers.

Don’t get me wrong, the situation in the US is serious, but as always, we need to keep perspective.

With all the doom and gloom, there’s also been a lot of good news coming out of the States and so I feel a little bit of balance is called for… Below are some good news stories that you could have been excused for missing amongst all the negative noise.

• Whilst there’s been a lot of media coverage on the fact that that the US economy contracted slightly in the December quarter, it would seem this is mostly related to disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy and a drop in defence spending. So far nothing concrete to indicate they’re heading back into recession. 
• The pace of growth in private final demand actually picked up from 2% in the September quarter to 3% in the December quarter, and basically what this means is that underlying growth is fine, which is a positive sign.
• US corporates are in a financially very strong position with approximately $1.7 trillion dollars in cash sitting offshore. More than 70% of listed US companies reported greater than forecasted earnings expectations last quarter and 65% reported greater than forecasted revenue expectations.
• Business investment is looking stronger, construction spending is on the rise, consumer sentiment is up and jobs growth has been fair.
• The Republican Party (who control the House of Representatives) have agreed to cooperate with Obama’s recent debt ceiling proposal, albeit with conditions, which is a positive step. As I mentioned on my radio program last year, I couldn’t ever imagine the Republican Party would want to be seen as the reason the US went back into recession and for this reason would ultimately always agree to raising the debt ceiling. However, last year that they left their cooperation until the 11th hour and the argey bargey caused some real confidence damage. And if I can just hark back to last week’s blog post, you’ll recall the impact investor confidence has on sharemarket performance in the current climate.
• Obama has proposed a “sequester” on automatic budget cuts and tax increases which would have otherwise come into play this year, and this should hopefully have a positive effect on confidence and economic recovery.
• The International Monetarty Fund (IMF) have conceded that some of their fiscal austerity measures have been harsher than necessary, and will take a more moderate approach going forward.
• The US banking system may not be completely “fixed” but is greatly improved, and definitely well ahead of Europe.
• The US has access now to abundant cheap energy in the form of gas, and by 2017 is set to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest single producer of oil in the world.
• The US housing crisis appeared to bottom late last year, and US households are reducing debt at around US $500bn per annum.

Without question, the US still have a massive task ahead to fully recover from the financial mess they got themselves into - a task made even more difficult by the political instability of a Government with no clear majority.

It’s easy to get caught up in the negativity because frankly that’s what’s thrust upon us every day, but at the end of the day, the question we really want answered is – how does this effect us? And you can only get this answer and perspective with a balanced view of what’s going on. Hopefully I’ve helped provide a little bit of that today.

What should investors be doing in 2013?

Today’s my first day back in the office since Christmas, and I’m pondering two important issues:

1. Why did I come back on a Thursday instead of just giving myself an extra two days break?

2. What was I thinking coming back on my birthday???!!!!

Interestingly, the financial world didn’t stand still while I was away. In fact it was quite busy!

Have you taken a look at our sharemarket lately? It’s trotting along quite nicely and putting a smile on the faces of lots of Aussie investors.

You may recall me griping last year about the US market’s record breaking returns compared to Australia’s lacklustre efforts, well it seems I was heard. I didn’t realise I had that much influence. I suspected, but wasn’t sure…

At its all-time peak in November 2007, the ASX All Ordinaries index reached 6,854 points. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it fell as low as 3,091 points (a fall of 55%) on 10 March 2009. Yesterday it closed at 4,940, almost at that elusive 5,000, and a 59% recovery since the bottom…

This news also bodes well for the economy in general, because sharemarket recovery is usually one of the first signs of pending economic improvement.

Now, I’m often accused of being a bit of a Pollyanna by my family and friends, but when it comes to the sharemarket I’m realistic. There are fundamentals that even someone as optimistic as I am can’t ignore.

A few of the most important include:

• NO ONE can 100% accurately predict future sharemarket performance;

• The sharemarket IS NOT rational;

• Risk is an inherent part of sharemarket investment, and if it wasn’t, there’d be no point investing because that’s where the reward stems from;

• From inception, the sharemarket has ALWAYS returned to a higher point than its original peak, but no one can predict how long it will take;

• Sharemarket investment is a long-term commitment, and when you experience something as unexpected and unprecedented as the Global Financial Crisis, it may be longer than you originally anticipated.

There’s also no doubt that we’re living in an era where investor psychology is impacting the performance of the sharemarket more greatly than we’ve ever experienced. This is largely due to the almost instantaneous access investors have to information via the internet and media.

Unfortunately this information is not always understood or interpreted correctly and therefore the market is prone to over-react to what is, or is perceived to be, bad news. This isn’t going to change anytime soon, so we need to be prepared for market volatility even when it’s illogical.

I read an entertaining article in the Age last week by Marcus Padley who claimed that his new year's resolution was to stop occasionally and ask, "Is what I am reading, watching, listening to or doing, necessary, worthwhile or a waste of my time?" It made me laugh out loud, but I digress…

My point is that while our favourite economist, Felix Stephen, is forecasting a 7 year bull run from the end of this year (he’s also forecasting a correction and high volatility by this April), markets are quite literally unpredictable.

I would love to tell you that this recent market rally will continue, but I can’t. No one can. What I can tell you is that the investment philosophy of “set and forget” which worked in the early noughties has become somewhat redundant in this current environment.

So what do I think investors should be doing in 2013? I’m glad you asked.

1. Getting financial and market information from your Financial Adviser not the media. I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t take an interest in current affairs, but also make sure you get perspective that’s relevant to your personal circumstances, and without the scaremongering;

2. If you’re not reviewing your investment portfolio you should be; and if it hasn’t been formally reviewed in the past few years then it’s definitely time because changes almost certainly need to be made to reflect the current environment.

3. Don’t rely on “set and forget”, this just isn’t a sensible strategy in this post-GFC climate. One of The Hendrie Group’s primary focuses since the GFC has been sourcing strategies that include tactical decisions, and this should be a priority for investors.

4. If you’re thinking about retirement in the next few years then you should be getting advice NOW. Don’t wait until it’s too late to implement really effective strategies that might add thousands or tens of thousands to your retirement nest egg.

Hope you’ve enjoyed my birthday musings.

Talk soon,
Caren