What should investors be doing in 2013?

Today’s my first day back in the office since Christmas, and I’m pondering two important issues:

1. Why did I come back on a Thursday instead of just giving myself an extra two days break?

2. What was I thinking coming back on my birthday???!!!!

Interestingly, the financial world didn’t stand still while I was away. In fact it was quite busy!

Have you taken a look at our sharemarket lately? It’s trotting along quite nicely and putting a smile on the faces of lots of Aussie investors.

You may recall me griping last year about the US market’s record breaking returns compared to Australia’s lacklustre efforts, well it seems I was heard. I didn’t realise I had that much influence. I suspected, but wasn’t sure…

At its all-time peak in November 2007, the ASX All Ordinaries index reached 6,854 points. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it fell as low as 3,091 points (a fall of 55%) on 10 March 2009. Yesterday it closed at 4,940, almost at that elusive 5,000, and a 59% recovery since the bottom…

This news also bodes well for the economy in general, because sharemarket recovery is usually one of the first signs of pending economic improvement.

Now, I’m often accused of being a bit of a Pollyanna by my family and friends, but when it comes to the sharemarket I’m realistic. There are fundamentals that even someone as optimistic as I am can’t ignore.

A few of the most important include:

• NO ONE can 100% accurately predict future sharemarket performance;

• The sharemarket IS NOT rational;

• Risk is an inherent part of sharemarket investment, and if it wasn’t, there’d be no point investing because that’s where the reward stems from;

• From inception, the sharemarket has ALWAYS returned to a higher point than its original peak, but no one can predict how long it will take;

• Sharemarket investment is a long-term commitment, and when you experience something as unexpected and unprecedented as the Global Financial Crisis, it may be longer than you originally anticipated.

There’s also no doubt that we’re living in an era where investor psychology is impacting the performance of the sharemarket more greatly than we’ve ever experienced. This is largely due to the almost instantaneous access investors have to information via the internet and media.

Unfortunately this information is not always understood or interpreted correctly and therefore the market is prone to over-react to what is, or is perceived to be, bad news. This isn’t going to change anytime soon, so we need to be prepared for market volatility even when it’s illogical.

I read an entertaining article in the Age last week by Marcus Padley who claimed that his new year's resolution was to stop occasionally and ask, "Is what I am reading, watching, listening to or doing, necessary, worthwhile or a waste of my time?" It made me laugh out loud, but I digress…

My point is that while our favourite economist, Felix Stephen, is forecasting a 7 year bull run from the end of this year (he’s also forecasting a correction and high volatility by this April), markets are quite literally unpredictable.

I would love to tell you that this recent market rally will continue, but I can’t. No one can. What I can tell you is that the investment philosophy of “set and forget” which worked in the early noughties has become somewhat redundant in this current environment.

So what do I think investors should be doing in 2013? I’m glad you asked.

1. Getting financial and market information from your Financial Adviser not the media. I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t take an interest in current affairs, but also make sure you get perspective that’s relevant to your personal circumstances, and without the scaremongering;

2. If you’re not reviewing your investment portfolio you should be; and if it hasn’t been formally reviewed in the past few years then it’s definitely time because changes almost certainly need to be made to reflect the current environment.

3. Don’t rely on “set and forget”, this just isn’t a sensible strategy in this post-GFC climate. One of The Hendrie Group’s primary focuses since the GFC has been sourcing strategies that include tactical decisions, and this should be a priority for investors.

4. If you’re thinking about retirement in the next few years then you should be getting advice NOW. Don’t wait until it’s too late to implement really effective strategies that might add thousands or tens of thousands to your retirement nest egg.

Hope you’ve enjoyed my birthday musings.

Talk soon,
Caren

“Super” Disturbing

One of my clients recently received a letter from his industry super fund letting him know that they’d found some money in another super account (sometimes referred to as “lost super”).
They were offering to have the amount rolled over to their fund - all he had to do was sign and date a form they’d enclosed, and they’d do the rest.

The letter didn’t mention the amount of money involved, and it made no mention of insurance. And in no place did they suggest that they should speak to their adviser or in some way make sure it was an appropriate move for their circumstances.

Now it just so happened that we were in the process of increasing his insurance cover because of his increased debt levels. The amount that he has in his existing fund is enough to cover his additional needs. What makes this so important is that he actually has a pretty severe back condition. The extra insurance we were looking at was either going to be very expensive or was going to exclude back injuries.

Luckily this client found a statement from the old fund (not everyone would be that organised), and lo and behold what did we find? A fairly large existing insurance component in the old fund!

So essentially, the worst thing in the world he could have done from that perspective would have been to close the old account because it would have cancelled his insurance. As I mentioned earlier, the letter he received from his industry fund didn’t even suggest he should consider any insurance component which is completely irresponsible from an organisation that seriously ought to know better.

Now it was an industry fund in this case, but there have also been a number of retail superannuation managers advertising similar offers.

When deciding to rollover your super some of the very basic issues to consider include (at the very least):

- Fees

- Underlying investment options and exposure to unlisted assets

- Investment performance

- Independent research ratings

- What retirement streams are available and can they be transferred from
   superannuation phase to a retirement income stream without capital gains tax.

- Type of tax structure

- Insurance options

- Death Nominations

- Does the fund allow superannuation splitting – this might become very important if the
   government legislates contribution concessions for balances less than $500,000.

So the message is if you get a letter like the one my client received, don’t just think oh yeah that sounds easy, and sign the form. It may not be in your best interest.

Even if your super isn’t a huge priority for you now, it will be one day, so don’t make bad decisions now that might affect you later.

Talk soon,
C